"A picture is worth a thousand words" is an axiom I often tried to refute as a Navy journalist and Civil Service writer-editor. Can't begin to tell you how many arguments I've had over the years with photographers and photo-journalists alike on this subject.
However, I reluctantly have to admit there are times when pictures really do speak volumes, and the two photos that follow, provided courtesy of Skip Schaible, are classic examples. They very graphically demonstrate once and for all the vast difference you'll find at West Neck Marina as a result of strong NE winds (top photo), as opposed to the result of strong ENE winds (bottom photo).
This difference made a fool out of me here recently. Specifically, I cancelled our Dewey Mullins Memorial Bass Tourney scheduled for Sept. 26th, based on projected strong NE winds overnight Friday into tourney day (Saturday). Those winds ultimately were more from the east and east northeast, which just kept making the water level rise, after having fallen to an extremely low reading early Friday. By what would have been our regular launch time Saturday morning, there was plenty of water at the West Neck ramp, but I already had cancelled the tournament as of Friday afternoon--in the interest of allowing anglers to make alternate plans if they so desired.
While the effect of lunar tides on the North Landing and Northwest Rivers is negligible, the same can't be said for wind tides. Strong winds from the southeast move water northward from Currituck Sound and up the two rivers, flooding fringing marshes and swamps. Conversely, strong north to west winds result in lower water levels.
Because wind speeds, direction and duration are irregular, the frequency and duration of wind tides are highly variable. Extreme amplitudes of wind tides on the North Landing and Northwest Rivers are not precisely known, but similar wind tides have been estimated to cause as much as 4 feet of variation in the water surface of the Chowan River in North Carolina, and up to 3.28 feet of variation in Back Bay, Virginia.
Field observations indicate that powerful southerly wind-tidal events during periods of high riverine flow can drive water levels up significantly--nearly to the headwaters of these systems and their tributaries.
In my opinion, there's no one who can accurately predict wind direction and speed all the time, or if so, nobody seemingly has shared the magic formula with the local TV weather forecasters. I say that simply because they miss the mark far more often than they hit it. There is one website, however, that seems to be reliable most of the time, and it can be found at this link: http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?sta=KORF&state=VA.
When you want to know what kind of water-level conditions you're going to find at West Neck, first go to the website at this link (http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=akq&gage=cacv2), then add 1.30 to the reading you find there, and you'll have the approximate water level at the West Neck Marina ramp. Generally speaking, any reading (after adding the 1.30) that doesn't come up to at least 2.30 warrants your careful consideration before trying to launch. And part of that consideration needs to be whether the water is going out or coming in.
And finally, I offer this one last word to the wise: The West Neck launch ramp ends squarely in front of the last piling on each catwalk. I've seen the end with my own two eyes on several occasions, and I never would B.S. anyone about something as important as their personal safety or that of their equipment.
Have fun, but don't be foolish about it.
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